Fitch Ratings — P&C Results Predictions for 2026

Fitch Ratings has made predictions about underwriting results for 2026. Senior directors, Tana Marcom and Chris Grimes said we’ll see results close to what we saw at the end of 2024.

So the prediction isn’t necessarily good or bad.

Marcom believes 2025’s combined ratio will end up being around 94. It’s the best result in 15 years and is 3 points lower the 2024 combined ratio. Another positive for 2025 was fewer hurricanes making landfall and $18 billion in favorable loss reserves through 2025’s third quarter.

“The sector enters 2026 on solid footing with underwriting profitability expected to persist, although profits will be slightly lower than 2025,” she said and predicted a combined ratio for 2026 being somewhere around 96 or 97.

That’s a combined radio — as noted earlier — that we saw at the end of 2024.

Both Marcom and Grimes said the combined ratios for commercial lines and personal lines will end up at 94 for 2025. Grimes said a big part of that is a fifth consecutive year of underwriting profitability for commercial lines.

“We do expect underwriting profits to narrow modestly in 2026 with a combined ratio [for commercial lines] between 96 and 97,” he said.

Marcom also addressed homeowners insurance. Hurricane losses and California wildfires added $40 billion to losses last year and convective storms put another $50 billion in losses to homeowners lines in 2025.

“Despite this, ample property/casualty reinsurance capacity is making it a buyers’ market, and primary insurers will benefit from softening rates there in 2026,” she said.

Source link: Insurance Journal — https://bit.ly/49Iv2GD