In a low turnout general election, Washington voters appear to maintain the status quo

With just over 21 percent of eligible voters statewide having returned ballots by election night, Washington voters appear poised to maintain the status quo, with a possible narrow exception in the state House. Here’s a first look at election night returns, with a caveat that counting will continue for the next several days before results become definitive.

Storylines

At the statewide level, nine legislative races and one ballot measure were on Tuesday’s ballot. These special elections were occasioned by a number of appointments that took place earlier in the year, as a result of retirements, prior incumbents’ elections to higher office, and political appointments to fill vacancies. Of the nine, four captured interest through the summer and fall campaign season, as each of the four offered the possibility that either a seat might flip from Democrat to Republican, or a more moderate Democrat may be elected. The Democrats’ majority control of the House and Senate, currently at 59-39 and 31-19 respectively, was not in question on election night, but the possibility that one or two seats could flip, or a moderating message could be sent from the electorate, was in play.

Election night trends

Of the four competitive races, as of first returns on election night, three Democratic incumbents are in a solid position to retain their positions, and one Democratic challenger has taken an early lead in an intra-party contest. Early trends in the four key races:

LD 26 Senate (Gig Harbor/Kitsap County)

Deb Krishnadasan, incumbent D: 52.6%

Michelle Caldier, R challenger: 47.3%

With 33,854 votes counted in first results, Sen. Krishnadasan leads challenger Rep. Caldier by about 1,800 votes.

LD 5 Senate (Issaquah/King County)

Victoria Hunt, incumbent D: 54.5%

Chad Magenzanz, R challenger: 45.3%

With 22,993 votes counted in first results, Sen. Hunt leads challenger Magendanz by approximately 2,100 votes.

LD 48 Senate (Bellevue/Kirkland)

Vandana Slatter, incumbent D: 55.9%

Amy Walen, D challenger: 42.3%

With 15,121 votes counted in first results, Sen. Slatter leads challenger Rep. Walen by about 2,100 votes.

LD 33 House (South King County)

Edwin Obras, incumbent D: 47.3%

Kevin Schilling, D challenger: 50.2%

With 12,226 votes counted in first results, incumbent Rep. Obras is trailing Democratic challenger Kevin Schilling by approximately 500 votes.

Statewide ballot measure

Senate Joint Resolution 8021, a proposed state constitutional amendment that would allow the state to invest trust funds held for the state’s long term care insurance program, is passing 56.8% to 43.2%, well on its way to passage.

Looking ahead

If election night trends hold, it will be a victory for the status quo, with Democrats maintaining their numeral majority in both chambers and, in the case of the Senate, a moderate Democratic challenger turned away. If Kevin Schilling’s slim lead holds through late ballot counting, it will represent a slight moderating influence in the House Democratic Caucus. It will take a couple weeks for counties to finish counting ballots and election night trends can change; most attention will be on the 26^th District Senate race and 33^rd District House race. We will update with final numbers as races are called.  

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