Oregon's Election and Legislative Update

ELECTION OVERVIEW

Despite a sweeping "red wave" across much of the country, Oregon Democrats not only weathered the storm but emerged with supermajorities in both chambers—a feat that positions them firmly in control as the state heads into the 2025 legislative session.

At the federal level, Oregon voters largely stuck to their established patterns. Suzanne Bonamici (D-OR D1), Cliff Bentz (R-OR D2), Val Hoyle (D-OR D4), and Andrea Salinas (D- OR D6) all secured re-election. Meanwhile, State Representative Maxine Dexter (D) sailed to victory in District 3, and State Representative Janelle Bynum (D) pulled off a notable upset in District 5, ousting incumbent Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R).

On the statewide stage, Democrats continued their winning streak. State Treasurer Tobias Read (D) decisively defeated Senator Dennis Linthicum (R) for Secretary of State, while Senator Elizabeth Steiner (D) bested Senator Brian Boquist (R) to claim the State Treasurer’s office. Former Speaker of the House Dan Rayfield (D) rounded out the trifecta, winning the State Attorney General race against Will Lathrop (R).

The Democrats' supermajority in both chambers—secured by a razor-thin 161-vote victory in House District 22—is a critical milestone, as Oregon’s Constitution requires three-fifths support in both chambers to approve any new taxes or increases. In the House, Democrats now hold a 36-24 majority over Republicans. The chamber welcomes 9 new members, including the return of former Representative Christine Drazen, who was promptly elected Minority Leader following Representative Jeff Helfrich’s decision to step down. On the Democratic side, leadership remains steady, with Representative Julie Fahey continuing as Speaker and Representative Ben Bowman retaining his position as Majority Leader.

In the Senate, Democrats expanded their advantage to an 18-12 supermajority by flipping Senate District 27 (Bend). Leadership changes were more pronounced in the Democratic Caucus: while Senator Rob Wagner continues as Senate President, Senator Kayse Jama takes the reins as Majority Leader after Senator Kathleen Taylor’s brief five-month tenure. The Republican leadership team, by contrast, held steady, with Senator Daniel Bonham as Minority Leader and Senators David Brock-Smith, Dick Andersen, and Cedric Hayden continuing as Assistant Minority Leaders.

Oregon Democrats now find themselves in a strong position to advance their legislative priorities, buoyed by consistent support from voters and a solidified majority at every level of government. Whether tackling tax reform, addressing housing shortages, or passing a transportation package, the stage is set for an active and impactful session.

LEGISLATIVE UPDATE

United Strategies & Consulting will be actively monitoring the upcoming December Legislative Days (Dec 9-12), as they are the last interim days before the start of the legislative session on January 22, 2025.

Governor Tina Kotek has called a Special Legislative Session to start on December 12, for legislators to appropriate $218M to the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF) and Oregon State Fire Marshal (OSFM) in order to allow the departments to fund this year’s wildfire season. Typically, these funds would come from the Legislature’s Emergency Board, which exists to approve emergency spending in between legislative sessions. However, the Board does not have the funds to fulfill the need for ODF and OSFM. While there appears to be agreement between caucuses that legislators will work in a bipartisan effort to efficiently tackle this issue, special sessions often bring hesitancy as Democrats could use their majorities to bring forward bills Republicans oppose and there are no constitutional rules requiring lawmakers to adjourn at any specific point.

REVENUE FORECAST

The last revenue forecast before the 2025 session was presented on November 20th. Oregon’s newly appointed state economist has shaken things up by revising the revenue forecasting model, which had been running on some outdated assumptions. The refreshed methodology is designed to align more closely with current economic realities and, ideally, to help dodge the notorious “kicker” rebates. While avoiding a kicker remains a long-term aspiration, Oregonians can still expect a personal kicker rebate of $1.8 billion in 2025. On the bright side, the corporate kicker—worth a hefty $1 billion—will be directed to the K-12 education system, offering a boost to schools across the state.

On the budget front, the 2023-2025 Net General Fund Resources are projected at $954.4 million, marking a 2.7% increase from September’s forecast. Even more striking is the projected ending balance, which has surged by $2.3 billion since the close of the legislative session. Looking ahead to 2025-2027, available general fund resources are forecasted to hit $37.8 billion, buoyed by a robust beginning balance carried forward from the current biennium.

The broader economic picture offers a mix of steady progress and sector-specific struggles. Job creation has slowed but remains balanced by healthy unemployment rates and sustained consumer spending. However, the manufacturing and construction industries are grappling with recessionary conditions. In the housing sector, there’s a troubling imbalance: Oregon is completing many housing projects but not starting nearly enough new ones. This disparity is leaving construction workers underemployed and exacerbating challenges in addressing the state’s ongoing housing shortages.

As Oregon navigates these fiscal and economic dynamics, the updated revenue model and anticipated budgetary windfalls provide opportunities to tackle these challenges strategically in the upcoming legislative sessions.

United Strategies & Consulting | Associate
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