WA State Election Night Report -- First Numbers

Ballot Measures

There were three initiatives on the ballot, the most consequential to the business community being I-645, which would repeal the “Millionaire’s Tax,” which imposes a 9.9% tax on household gross income above $1 million. As of first results, I-645 was losing by a margin of 58.1 no to 41.9 yes. With the repeal measure apparently failing, the fight over the fate of the income tax shifts to the judiciary, where a constitutional challenge is pending.

Legislative

Storylines

A major storyline this election involved an anti-incumbent and anti-moderate push within the Democratic party, where multiple incumbents were challenged from within their own party, often with local party support, either for positions viewed as misaligned with the progressive agenda or for excessive pragmatism in pursuing that agenda. Another storyline involved possible impact of a national “blue wave,” where disillusionment with federal policies put once-safe Republican incumbents in jeopardy not only across the country but in multiple Washington districts.

Key Races

These storylines played out in the following key races:

48th LD House (Eastside Suburbs), Walen (D) v. Forsythe (D)
Incumbent Rep. Amy Walen, Chair of the House Consumer Protection & Business Committee and a moderate, business-friendly voice in her caucus, faced an intraparty challenge from Redmond City Council member Jessica Forsythe, running from the left. In first returns, Walen trailed Forsythe by 1,051 votes, or 47 percent to 51.1 percent. The primary election in this race was decided by 17 votes, so this is too close to call tonight.

37th District (Seattle), Santos (D) v. Tewolde (D)
Rep. Sharon Tomiko Santos, in the seat since 1999 and the House's longest-serving member, and an often moderating influence in the House Consumer Protection & Business Committee, is at 37.3% against progressive challenger Kelabe Tewolde's 61.8%, a 8,150 vote difference.

29th District (South Tacoma/Parkland), Morgan (D) v. Perez (D)
Rep. Melanie Morgan, one of the few House Democrats to vote against the income tax, is losing initially at 46.2% against Democratic challenger Krista Perez's 49.3%, a difference of 741 votes. Perez led the primary by about two points, then was arrested and charged with DUI.

17th District (East Clark County/Gorge) Waters and Stuebe (R) v. Christly & Perez (D) Democrats' top pickup opportunity. In House Position 1, Republican incumbent Kevin Waters is losing at 43.7%, while Democrat challenger Ben Christly is at 56.1%. In House Position 2, Republican incumbent David Stuebe is at 43.4% and Democrat Diana Perez is at 56.5%. These look to be the first two Democratic flips in the House.

18th District (North Clark County), McClintock and Ley (R) v. Knott and Letinich (D)
Another historically Republican district turned competitive. In House Position 1, Republican incumbent Stephanie McClintock is losing at 45.7%, while Democrat Randi Knott is at 54.2%. In House Position 2, Republican incumbent John Ley is at 44%, while Democrat Deken Letinich is at 55.8%. These look to be another two Democratic flips in the House.

26th District (Gig Harbor Area), Krishnadasan, Richards, and Greenfield (D) v. Parker, Olson, and Cornell (R)
One of the state's few genuine swing districts. Sen. Deb Krishnadasan is winning at 57.3% against Republican Gary Parker's 42.8%, an over 8,000 vote lead. In the House, Rep. Adison Richards, one of only a handful of Democrats to vote against this year's income tax, is leading at 56.5% against Republican David Olson's 43.4%. In the open seat left by retiring Republican Rep. Michelle Valdez, Democrat Renee Hernandez Greenfield is at 54.8% to Republican Katy Cornell's 45.1%, another likely Democratic House pickup.

42nd District (Whatcom County/Bellingham Area), Creydt (R) v. Shepard (D)
In what was theoretically the Democrats' most exposed open Senate seat, Republican Erika Creydt is losing at 43.5% against Democrat Michael Shepard's 56.4%, a margin likely to keep the seat in the Democratic column.

35th District (Mason County Area), MacEwen (R) v. Mejia (D)
In one of the few Senate seats that could move toward Democrats' two-thirds goal, Sen. Drew MacEwen, the Senate Republicans' deputy leader, is trailing at 48.4% against Democrat challenger Carolina Mejia's 51.5%, a 1,380 vote margin.

32nd District (Shoreline Area), Salomon (D) v. Ryu (D)
Rep. Cindy Ryu, challenging incumbent Sen. Jesse Salomon from the left, is leading in first returns by a slim 352 vote margin at 49.6% to Salomon's 48.7%.

12th, 14th and 25th Districts (Central Washington, Yakima Valley, Puyallup)
While historically safe Republican districts, a wave election impacting these House seats could decide whether Democrats reach 66. In the 14th, Rep. Gloria Mendoza is down 1,566 votes at 44.7% against Democrat Chelsea Dimas's 54.9%, and Rep. Deb Manjarrez is 1,699 votes down at 44.3% against Democrat Ezequiel Morfin's 55.3%. In the 12th, Rep. Brian Burnett, who led 50.2% to 49.8% in the primary, is at 48.5% to Democrat Stacy Willoughby's 51.5%. In the 25th, Rep. Michael Keaton is 606 votes down to Democrat David Berg's at 49.1%-50.7%. If these trends hold, it will result in nine Democratic pickups in the House.

Washington Supreme Court

An unusual five races for the Washington Supreme Court were also on the ballot, with the possibility of moderating the ideological tilt of the high court. Across two open seats, two special elections for recent gubernatorial appointments, and the re-election campaign of the sitting Chief Justice, a slate of five candidates thought to be generally progressive aligned squared off against a slate of five thought to be more center-right philosophically. Based on the margin of first returns, it would appear that the progressive slate will prevail with the possible exception of Judge Sean O’Donnell.

Position 1. Justice Colleen Melody, a Ferguson appointee, appears to have won re-election at 60% against Seattle tax attorney Scott Edwards's 40%. Edwards had generally been the business community's preferred pick.

Position 3. King County Superior Court Judge Jaime Hawk, a former ACLU attorney, appears to have prevailed in an open seat at 57.7% against Mason County Superior Court Judge David Stevens's 41.9%. Most business groups made no recommendation in this race, given questions over Judge Stevens's electability, but have voiced concerns about Hawk's judicial philosophy.

Position 4. Court of Appeals Judge Ian Birk is behind at 48.7% against King County Superior Court Judge Sean O'Donnell's 50.9%, a 39,744 difference. Both have Democratic endorsements, but O'Donnell also has Republican backing, which Birk and his allies have made a central issue.

Position 5. Justice Theo Angelis, a Ferguson appointee, appears poised to win his special election at 55.4% against retired municipal court Judge Dave Larson's 44.3%. Larson won most of the business backing in this race.

Position 7. Chief Justice Debra Stephens is at 63.8% against tax attorney and CPA Todd Bloom's 36%. She has been expected to win comfortably.

We'll continue to monitor these races as additional ballots are processed over the coming days and will send an update once trends solidify. Several are likely to take a week or more to call given the closeness of early margins and Washington's counting timeline.

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