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Wildfire — $2 Trillion in US Homes At Risk

Published March 4, 2025 at 2:01 PM · News Releases and Bulletins

ZestiAI did some research on homes in the U.S. with wildfire exposure. The property risk assessing company used artificial intelligence to show that many millions of homes are at risk for wildfire damage and destruction. 

Today there is $2.15 trillion of exposure in the U.S. involving 126 million properties. ZestiAI CEO Attila Toth said of the 126 million, 4.3 million are private homes.

“Wildfires are threatening more properties than ever before, with billions of dollars in exposure even in areas many people don’t associate with fire risk,” he said.

To come to its conclusions, ZestiAi used AI models and explored over 2,000 wildfires from the last couple of decades and mapped exposure. To do that, it integrated satellite and aerial images with topography and the characteristics of various structures.

What was most apparent is the number of homes now butting up against the wildlife-urban interface

To no one’s surprise, the PIA Western Alliance state of California has the most exposure to potential wildfire damage and has over 1.54 million homes and $1.21 trillion in total exposure. The Golden State is followed by Colorado, Texas, Utah and the PIA Western Alliance state of Arizona.

Toth said a lot of areas ZestiAI found are not historically prone to wildfires and the homeowners in those areas may not be aware of the risk. Because of that, they may be underinsured.

He noted that one in eight homes in the areas he spoke about lack the right insurance coverage. Toth pointed to insurance companies and said they need to be more proactive in urging homeowners to get the right coverage.

“Insurers have traditionally relied on broad, regional models that don’t account for individual property characteristics,” Toth said. “That means some homeowners are denied coverage even when their true risk is much lower than their neighbors’.”

Toth says the ZestiAI report has data that is more accurate and efficient which means property owners and insurers can do better assessments of wildfire risk. This technology can help insurers make better underwriting decisions while still keeping high exposure areas covered.

Here is the list of the 10 most at risk states with the PIA Western Alliance state of California topping the list. The PIA Western Alliance states of Arizona, Montana and Washington rank 5, 6 and 7 on the list.

California

At risk properties: 1,544,015

Median home value: $785,000

Total exposure: $1.21 trillion

Colorado

At risk properties: 317,425

Median home value: $621,000

Total exposure: $197 billion

Texas

At risk properties: 344,454

Median home value: $297,000

Total exposure: $102 billion

Utah

At risk properties: 182,426

Median home value: $615,000

Total exposure: $112 billion

Arizona

At risk properties: 225,918

Median home value: $432,000

Total exposure: $98 billion

Montana

At risk properties: 99,572

Median home value: $485,000

Total exposure: $48 billion

Washington

At risk properties: 151,231

Median home value: $592,000

Total exposure: $89 billion

Florida

At risk properties: 170,764

Median home value: $400,000

Total exposure: $68 billion

Oklahoma

At risk properties: 102,877

Median home value: $200,000

Total exposure: $21 billion

Wyoming

At risk properties: 31,177

Median home value: $335,000

Total exposure: $10.4 billion

Source link: Insurance Journal — https://bit.ly/4h6hbKP